Wildfire Thought-Leadership Series, Post #1. By Conor Hardy and Mark Livings, Co-Founders.
"Great brands sell liquid. Valuable brands sell a future cash-flow machine."
Mark Livings
Over the past decade, the two of us have raised more than £50 million for start-up and scale-up CPG ventures. If there is one question investors never stop asking, it is this: what really drives durable value in a drinks company?
The answer is rarely volume alone. It is the quality of the growth, the margins, the operations, the distribution and the story, stacked together.
A four-layer model we use to benchmark every brand. Each tier builds resilience upward, from rock-solid unit economics at the foundation to a crystal-clear exit narrative at the top.
Rock-solid margins and cash conversion at the foundation.
Lean supply chain and working capital that hold as you scale.
Right partners, right channels, distinctive IP and a story that travels.
A clear path to a strategic buyer who values what you have built.
A pathway from domestic hero to multi-market player without exploding opex. Warning sign: revenue stalls when you open new countries.
Above 50% gross margin in premium spirits funds brand heat and trade spend, and keeps you attractive to strategic buyers. Warning sign: promo discounts become your only growth lever.
A lean supply chain protects EBITDA as you scale. Warning sign: the working-capital cycle lengthens quarter after quarter.
A good brand with great distribution always beats a great brand with good distribution. The right partners create velocity and data. Warning sign: cases sit in warehouses while you pay storage.
Distinctive IP and a story that travels globally. Warning sign: retailers can private-label you without breaking sweat.
Investors distil the romance down to two metrics. MOIC, the multiple on invested capital, is exit proceeds divided by total capital invested. Series-A funds target three times or more; growth and PE funds target two times or more. ARR, the annualised rate of return, is where anything north of 25% turns heads.
We score each layer of your Value Stack against investor benchmarks.
We model your MOIC and ARR so the story stands up to diligence.
We build the plan, materials and introductions to raise with confidence.
Let us pressure-test your value story and get you investment ready.
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